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As the 2024 election frenzy kicks into high gear, one thing is certain - brace yourselves for market mayhem if the losing side revolts over the results. Investors who ignore this looming threat do so at their own peril.
The 2020 aftermath was just an appetizer when Trump refused to concede and his voter fraud frenzy went viral. On December 14th alone, the Dow tanked 400 points as $25 billion fled equities after the "rigged election" fury reached a boiling point. When the Capitol was besieged on January 6th, the S&P 500's 1.5% plunge proved that ignoring political shockwaves has a real cost.
Now imagine if that bedlam gets replicated in 2024...but on steroids. With rhetoric this overheated, the prospects of rejected tallies, protest violence, dueling electors, and a full-blown constitutional crisis look alarmingly plausible. An extended national nervous breakdown over the final call could leave your portfolio in tatters.
Playing dumb to such existential portfolio risks is negligence worthy of a compliance probe. It's time to proactively model out harrowing scenarios and implement defensive game plans rather than waiting for the next insurrection livestream to start streaming your losses.
At minimum, map out potential 2024 timelines like:
- Initial counts taking weeks amid "rigging" allegations
- Recount/audit demands going nuclear
- Viral misinformation and unrest over "irregularities"
- Legal Armageddon reaching SCOTUS before resolution
Then price in potential shocks like:
- Surging volatility detached from fundamentals
- Specific states de-linked from indices
- Municipal bond risks in protest zones
- Sector disruptions (energy, retail, travel) from chaos
Essentially, treat the democratic process like a volatile event you'd aggressively hedge and rebalance around.
Deploy political instability forecast models estimating subjective probabilities for worst-case contingencies. Think baked-in norm breakdowns, faithless electors, militias rejecting results - you know, just typical Sunday stuff these days.
Speaking of outsized threats, scrutinize holdings for geographic clusters in high-risk conflict areas via polling data and prior unrest patterns. Having 30% of portfolios domiciled in potential urban powderkeg counties could get...complicated.
Finally, consider potential operational threats like supply chain shocks, policy whiplash under new regimes, damage to facilities in hotspots, even threats like tariffs or delistings.
Look, the mainstream wants to chase this as just more partisan noise. But the failure to safeguard assets against anticipated political instability is a dereliction of professional duties. Dismissing the possibility outright of a legitimacy crisis or civic unraveling in 2024 isn't healthy skepticism - it's wilful malpractice!
The time to get risk models prepped for election pandemonium is RIGHT NOW before volatility spirals out of control. Those leading the "Keep Calm and Carry On" crowd will simply get carried out once reality strikes. Don't let 2024's chaos goblin rear its ugly head without a proactive and comprehensive protection plan.
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